2020: It’s all about the decade and how far we have come since “The Great Recession” and our Vision moving forward. Lawrence Yun, the Chief Economist for the National Association of Realtors, spoke to the Greenwich Association of Realtors. He dispelled the negative noise and presented an optimistic outlook for Real Estate in 2020.
Talk of a recession was prevalent throughout 2019, but the GDP results don’t support this rumor. In 2018 GDP was 2.9% while in 2019 GDP was 2.5%-a slower growth rate, NOT a recession. He predicted that the growth rate of the GDP in 2020 will be 3%. The mortgage rates will remain under 4%. Businesses will start investing their all-time high after-tax profits with the signing of Trade War Agreements.
The national real estate trend has been gradually recovering since 2008 except in 2019 when interest rates hit 5%. There has not been a meaningful breakout of higher sales. Home prices have been moving sideways, not increasing. Mid-priced to low-priced homes sell quickly and the inventory is low due to low new construction.
The Connecticut Real Estate Market is facing greater challenges. We are one of three states losing population. The new SALT has hit this region harder, particularly older people and high-income people. Connecticut is laggard in job creation and the Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk corridor has had no meaningful increase in jobs.
The good news is that the tri-state metro area has overperformed in attracting new jobs. In 2000 there were 3 Million jobs and in 2020 there are 4.7 Million jobs. These new jobs create a demand for housing. Job pay is also increasing in the region.
Affordability is better now than in 2000 and more people are employed. There is less property ownership since 2000 so there is sizable pent up demand.
We left the presentation feeling very optimistic about the future of housing. More jobs, low interest rates, and pent up housing demand predict a positive economic future for real estate.
Real Estate Activity in Fairfield County confirms his predictions: buyers have come out ready to make a decision. Open Houses are well-attended and multiple offers are coming in. If you are ready to make a move, 2020 is the year!
MONTHLY CONNECT COCKTAILS
Date: Thursday, February 27th
Time: 6:00 p.m. to 8:00 p.m.
Place: South Bay
403 Greenwich Avenue
Greenwich CT
Together with my “203” partners, I am hosting a monthly social event at different restaurants in Fairfield County. Our goal is to bring our friends, past and future clients together with our business partners to build connections in our community. Each month I will announce the date, the venue and the time. Please join us and we will offer complimentary beer, wine and a signature cocktail.
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